Zimbabwe Monitor

ZANU factions are the problem

2010-08-05T14:57:00.004+02:00

Needless to say there are those that dismiss the reports of a dossier on Chiwenga as just more evidence of the factionalism within ZANU(PF). It is unlikely but not impossible that factions within ZANU-PF have played a part in this saga. But this is precisely the issue. I have long been arguing for the need for the party to overcome its factional differences and unite around a policy that traditional ZANU(PF) supporters can identify with. The party's factionalism - and its failure to focus on the real national interest - has undermined this traditional support and created the political space for the MDC to occupy. Worse still it has laid the country open to the sort of military takeover Chiwenga appears to be making plans for, whether in association with his nominal political masters or independently with the other security chiefs.

I have no ZANU faction axe to grind - my loyalty like that of so many Zimbabweans is to the ideals of the liberation movement rather than to the narrow political interests of any one faction My concern is that it is no longer the party but the security apparatus that is dictating policy. I lament that the party has lost its direction and grip to such an extent that it is a corrupt elite rather than the party that runs the country and that the elite is only able to run it by gradually ceding ever more power to the security forces. It is not any one faction that presents the challenge to our future prosperity but the creeping dictatorship epitomised by this growing dependence on an unelected security apparatus.

Ironically the so-called inclusive government is proving merely a mask behind which the status quo is consolidating its grip. The country is moving inexorably towards authoritarianism of the worst order - in which the security chiefs are inextricably linked in a corrupt partnership with a self-serving minority to deprive the mass of the people of their national inheritance in order to preserve their own position. What sort of improvement does this represent on the colonialism we fought so hard to defeat?

The wealth of Marange is being kept from the people and the government coffers by uniformed men armed with guns they are content to use against their own people to ensure that this fabulous wealth keeps the few in pampered luxury while the mass remain deprived. Much of the national wealth is being siphoned off abroad just as it was in the colonial era. The socialism our President once espoused has been turned on its head in the pursuit of narrow self-interest and not even the few beacons of the remaining free press are able to stand up to it. It is difficult to see who will.

Damning Dossier - The End for Chiwenga?

2010-07-30T18:46:00.004+02:00

An incriminating dossier on the political ambitions of the Chief of the Defence Forces, Constantine Chiwenga, due to be presented to Mugabe shortly will present the President with a difficult dilemma on the eve of Armed Forces Day. What action to take on the detailed evidence contained in the dossier on the plans of General Chiwenga for an effective takeover of power? The dilemma will be exacerbated by the fact that Chiwenga's preparations to take over the reins of power have been in no small part facilitated by the plans of the Joint Operations Command to ensure that the MDC is kept from power at the next elections. For the first time, however, Mugabe will see evidence of Chiwenga positioning himself for a personal bid for the Presidency on the back of the JOC's contingency planning for the next election

For much of the past couple of years since the March 2008 elections, Chiwenga has been able to consolidate his personal power base in pursuit of objectives he shared with his party and agreed specifically with his JOC colleagues. But as uncertainty over future elections, the health of Mugabe and the succession in ZANU(PF) has grown, the Defence Force Chief found it necessary to work increasingly on his own personal agenda. Not long ago Mugabe was alarmed to discover how significant elements, both in the ranks and at a senior level, had been alienated by moves Chiwenga had made to secure his own dominance of the military. In response a retired CIO officer was tasked to conduct a detailed investigation into Chiwenga's personal and professional affairs to assess the scale of the problem. It took this investigation to uncover Chiwenga's independent political aspirations.

It is not clear at precisely what point Chiwenga's personal political ambitions started to diverge from those of the JOC, but from square one it has been clear that neither he nor closest associates in the security forces, Prisons Chief Zimondi and Police Chief Chihuri, were prepared to give any ground to MDC. It was these three above all others who persuaded Mugabe to stay on after his defeat in March 2008 and then delivered him an uncontested presidential election in June. It was Chiwenga who oversaw the military takeover of the Chiadzwa diamond mines in November 2008 and first went looking for Chinese and other partners to help exploit them. He, Zimondi and Chihuri all refused to recognise the legitimacy of Morgan Tsvangirai's premiership once the inclusive government was formed and Chiwenga ensured that the new MDC Finance Minister could not access the fabulous wealth potential of Marange for the national benefit. But all these moves to consolidate his own control fitted with the will of Mugabe and the JOC, if not with all the factions within ZPF.

It appears to have been in the build-up to the party congress at the end of last year that the first signs started to emerge of Chiwenga going his own way, independently of Mugabe or ZPF. The incident that first attracted attention was the Pomona barracks incident in which the determination of Chiwenga to deal ruthlessly with discontent in the ranks was brutally demonstrated in the torturing of soldiers (survivors have since been exonerated of any wrongdoing). At the same time Chiwenga was getting increasingly worried about the factionalism within the party itself. These worries only increased with the divisiveness that became apparent at the party congress itself, the results of which did not appear to work in favour of Minister of Defence Mnangagwa, with whom Chiwenga had albeit reluctantly aligned his political fortunes. The congress brought home to him how little hope there was of ZPF holding together as a political force in the post-Mugabe era and of Mugabe ever appointing a successor. He himself had hoped to secure a political role within the party from which to launch his leadership bid but when it didn't materialise he began to doubt even Mugabe's commitment to him.

Since then he has developed a two-track stategy - to exploit the agenda of the JOC (and the political aspirations of Mnanagagwa) to continue to secure military control on ever more levers of power; and to consolidate his personal control over the security machinery and the resource necessary to secure power through patronage.

There is apparently no suggestion in the dossier that Chiwenga is moving to oust Mugabe himself in whose shadow he is content to operate for the time being. However, it does show how he is actively

- preparing the ground for the day that Mugabe is no longer strong enough to rule effectively. This involves refining a JOC strategy for taking power which requires the retention in the new constitution of a clause obliging the executive to 'protect the gains of the struggle'. This clause would enable Chiwenga, when necessary, to manufacture a crisis in which those gains appeared to be threatened, allowing the security services to adopt a central role in restoring order.

- using his many connections abroad, especially in China and the Far East, to build the business infrastructure to stock his personal war chest in advance of the next elections, which he would like to be held before the middle of 2011. He has already secured a sizeable revenue stream from the illegal sale of Marange diamonds, which he has been using to distribute patronage to supporters and attack his key political rival, Rex Mujuru. Siphoning-off revenue which should have been destined for others to overseas accounts including via front companies in the UK and US. According to the report, his personal fortune already exceeds $80 million.

- amassing and securing for himself an off-budget supply of arms, including 800 Chinese-made AK-47s, ~300 pistols, 30,000 rounds of ammunition. Chiwenga has also been developing different routes to smuggle weapons into the country.

- shoring up his own position including by over-promoting loyal officers and moving his inner circle of loyal senior commanders into key positions; using his power as CDF and access to Mugabe to undermine the positions of more moderate figures within the military command structure (he is said to have drawn up a hit list of disloyal officers whom he suspects would side with MDC and/or reformist elements in ZPF if it ever came to choosing between a violent election campaign and a negotiated solution).

- doing everything necessary to convince Mnangagwa of his support fot the latter's aspirations while making his own plans to perpetuate Zezuru control into the post-Mugabe era (he is determined no Karanga should succeed Mugabe despite his apparent change of alliance from Mujuru to Mnanagagwa).

Chiwenga neglects his greatest asset at his peril

2010-06-30T14:33:00.002+02:00

It is striking how neglectful ZANU PF are of the military at a time when arguably the elite in the party are more dependent on them than ever before if they are to retain power.

Many in the military, while loyal to ZANU PF, were deeply uncomfortable with the role they played in the presidential re-election campaign of June 2008. And thereafter, Junior officers and soldiers in particular were understandably frustrated over their terms and conditions of service, particularly with regard to the provision of food, equipment, uniforms, and the poor condition of ZDF accommodation. Chiwenga was inclined to be dismissive, saying complaints of this nature were normal and should not be blown out of proportion.

His view seems to be that strong leadership is all that is required to ensure there is no dissent and that it is soldiers' expectations that needed to be kept under control.

Chiwenga has seemed only concerned to protect own position by promoting his favourites and clamping down on elements he does not trust. He is not concerned about addressing the underlying problems. Chiwenga seems to have no appreciation of the resentment that builds up in the lower ranks over the senior ranks' exploitation of their position, not least in the case of the diamonds in Marange, where soldiers have been able to observe the looting first-hand. Even by the senior ranks, he is held largely responsible for the very low morale in the armed forces and the overall decline in standards in all departments of the military is laid firmly at Chiwenga's door.

The mood in the military has become increasingly charged since the Pomona barracks affair in latter part of last year. The incident provoked widespread suspicion at the time that Chiwenga had stage-managed the theft and the subsequent arrests of over one hundred soldiers and officers on suspicion of involvement in the crime. Chiwenga had been arousing growing resentment across the army command by surrounding himself with a cabal of Zezuru officers, some of whom were believed to have assisted him with the theft from Pomona.

Chiwenga genuinely sees himself as a future political leader outside of the armed forces in Zimbabwe. At least until the party congress he was reportedly confident that Mugabe would secure him a senior political position before he left office. This confidence was largely rooted in the knowledge that Mugabe was indebted to him for surviving as president after the 2008 elections - and would be reliant on his services at the next elections. He is however reported to be disappointed that he has not already been given that senior political position. He may find he needs the support of the Armed Forces if his ever to secure his political ambitions - in which case he will have to look after their interests rather better than he has done to date.

Why has Chiwenga decided to go it alone?

2010-05-29T18:33:00.001+02:00

Fear that unless he was in control of his own destiny his own future security could never be guaranteed. Initially he thought his destiny could safely remain tied to Mugabe - at least as long as the latter conceded no ground to the MDC. From the outset, Chiwenga was prepared to do anything and everything to ensure that MDC was not allowed to govern.

He was particularly opposed to any MDC role within the security sector and went out of his way to ensure that the National Security Bill, drafted in March 2009, did not allow the National Security Council any powers over the JOC. Indeed, the National Security Bill was designed to be impossible to implement. It was planned as a concession to Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai early on in the IG, giving him something to claim as a victory while keeping him away from the security forces.

But Chiwenga remained alarmed at the credit the MDC was getting for some of the reforms that came in in the first year of the IG. He was particularly concerned at the divisive effect that so-called MDC success was having on ZANU PF and increasing evidence of factionalism in the party.

This was all too evident at the ZANU PF Congress in December, when it was agreed behind closed doors that, in the event of 'chaos' in Zimbabwe, the army should take power. As a result, ever since the Congress, Chiwenga has been securing funding, training militia and consolidating the military's presence in government. Indeed, the army already has 'plain clothes' military personnel in every ministry, local government and in key positions controlling the rural areas.

Chiwenga and Mnangagwa had worked out a detailed gameplan against the possibility of Mugabe's early death. But Chiwenga had difficulty persuading his senior officers to side with Mnangagwa rather than Mujuru (to whom traditionally many of them felt much greater loyalty). Chiwenga therefore decided to stick with the gameplan but drop Mnangagwa from the starring role.

Chiwenga who had found it expedient to align himself with Mnangagwa rather than Mujuru, after Mugabe made the former defence Minister, the Party Congress convinced him that neither could be trusted to steer the country through without provoking violent confrontation between their factions. Only Chiwenga as CDF acting in concert with his closest allies in the security machinery, his former commander Paradzai Zimondi and Police Chief Chihuri, could secure continuity of power.

Chiwenga - paving the way to the leadership

2010-05-23T21:32:00.001+02:00

Chiwenga had long ago secured his own personal fortune through the illicit plunder of the DRC and the expropriation of property in Zimbabwe. He also made millions through exchange rate manipulation as inflation soared after the mismanagement of the economy by Gideon Gono. And, since March 2008, Chiwenga had been able to consolidate his own personal power while appearing to be doing so exclusively in pursuit of the president's and the party's interests.

As with Mugabe himself, his main weapon was fear. As soon as the results of the March elections started coming in, Chiwenga and his two cronies, Chihuri and Zimondi, started persuading Mugabe that he could not risk accepting the result - the consequences for them all were too unpredictable and potentially devastating. The Security Chiefs would deliver a Mugabe victory in the second round whatever happened. Having won this argument with Mugabe, Chiwenga built a community of interest within ZANU PF around this, most importantly, with Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was later to be nominated Defence Minister by Mugabe.

The next step was to ensure that he delivered the necessary outcome with Operation Makavhoterapapi (For whom did you vote?). This was done in June by resorting to such levels of violence and intimidation that no other country could bring themselves to recognise the outcome. Mugabe's election might have been lost had it not been for the intervention of Thabo Mbeki who brokered the Global Political Agreement that ultimately led to the Inclusive Government that gave Mugabe back his legitimacy.

Meanwhile Chiwenga had been busy cultivating his relations with the Chinese. His first attempt to buy arms from the Chinese was prevented by an international outcry when they tried to offload arms for him in South Africa and Angola. Undeterred, Chiwenga engaged the Chinese in joint ventures in Marange. The vast diamond wealth here held the potential not just to pay for any arms shipments but to house an airstrip to enable the illicit import of arms and equally illicit export of diamonds. First however he had to secure control of the country's most significant source of revenue. In October 2008, Operation Hakudzokwi (You Won't Come Back) was launched by the army, police and intelligence officers was launched to take over the Marange field. The crackdown which began on October 27 with military helicopters indiscriminately firing automatic weapons to drive out the diggers, lasted three weeks and more than 200 perished.

Once secured, Chiwenga needed to ensure that the fields were only mined by bodies controlled by the JOC. Air Vice Marshal Robert Mhlanga was the man chosen to spearhead the new mining arrangement. Two companies with no previous experience of diamond mining, Mbada and Canadile, both based in South Africa, became the front for JOC's exploitation of the fields.

Throughout this period, Chiwenga was securing a firmer and firmer grip on the army ,ruthlessly stifling discontent in the ranks of the military. In December 2008, after soldiers sided with poor protesters to protest against the collapsing economy,16 soldiers were shot in cold blood by members of the presidential guard. Three others died during torture.

In October 2009, at least 12 more soldiers died after being tortured following the disappearance of arms and other military equipment from the Pomona barracks. A further 120 apparently survived horrific torturing.

This clampdown has been accompanied by preferential treatment for Chiwenga's cronies. The most significant recent appointment is that of Brigadier General Douglas Nyikayaramba to Mutare to run the 3 Infantry brigade and control the Chiadzwa diamond fields. Nyikayaramba played a crucial role in fixing the 2008 presidential run-off.

Chiwenga also needed to secure for himself a private supply of weapons and the means to get them into the country. Chiwenga has been an increasingly regular visitor to China in the last couple of years, especially since military control of the diamond fields gave him the opportunity to achieve this. According to reliable reports, Chinese in military fatigues helped in the construction of the military airstrip at Marange which has a one-mile-long runway capable of taking the biggest military transport planes. Some of these were reported to be armed. Shipping containers filled with weapons have been seen on the airstrip.

Slowly but surely Chiwenga has been putting all the pieces in place to ensure that no-one can contest his bid for the top job.

Chiwenga playing a double game with Mnangagwa

2010-05-15T09:31:00.001+02:00

In recent years it has been expedient and professionally necessary for Chiwenga to be seen to support Mnangagwa, especially in supporting Mnanagwa's aspirations to take over the Presidency from Mugabe. However, he is deeply uneasy about tying his own political aspirations to a Karanga.

While content to hide in Mnangagwa's shadow in support for his presidential pretensions, I have it on good authority that he has been making plans to succeed Mugabe himself. It has not been difficult to build his own plans around the contingency planning for Mugabe's death which relies heavily on the military. Mnangagwa will only realise when his own plans are well advanced that Chiwenga has had a different agenda.

This is not merely a question of Chiwenga feeling more secure with the current Zezuru ascendancy - as a former supporter of the Mujuru camp, he feels that he will be better placed to unite the party behind him than Mnangagwa. Indeed he has come to believe that only he can save Zimbabwe from being torn apart by the factionalism within ZANU and the struggle between ZANU and the MDC.

Chiwenga plans to succeed Mugabe

2010-05-08T17:46:00.002+02:00

Ever since Chiwenga saw President Mugabe teeter on the brink of accepting the election outcome in March 2008, he has desired to take the reins of power in Zimbabwe. Since that time, Chiwenga has been striving to twist the whole country around his little finger. Up to now, Chiwenga has succeeded in hiding his agenda behind the interests of the party, especially the JOC.

Now, Chiwenga is more than ever desparate to consolidate his power base - Mugabe is aging fast, factionalism is now tearing ZANU apart. But he has alienated a small number of people among the elite in the process, people who will not benefit from Chiwenga's scheming and who will alert Mugabe to Chiwenga's plot.

Chiwenga seems to have secured money to fund his war chest for the next elections when he plans to make a bid for the Presidency. Chiwenga believes he is the only one who can protect the gains of the struggle and his own interests when Mugabe's failing health finally forces him to step down.

Mugabe gets the Presidency, the Praesidium and the Politburo he wanted - now where's the policy?

2010-03-12T12:00:00.001+02:00

The more things change, the more they remain the same. I had hoped that the party congress would give the party a new sense of purpose and direction. But it was not to be. A bit of shuffling of seats in the presidium in December followed by a similar shuffling in the politburo. Since then the inclusive government has had its first birthday, the President his eighty-sixth and what change have we seen? None, apart possibly from a deterioration in the prospects for any co-ordinated approach to resolving the country's problems. All parties are increasingly characterised by neglect of everyone's interest but their own. But, in the absence of any attempt to address the national or common interest, no-one's interests are served. The party, the IG and the president are all one year older and the main thing that strikes us about all three is that they are one step nearer death.

The only player able to affect the fortunes of all three is the President himself. He is perceived to have got his own way at the party congress. The shuffling of seats in the party were the ones that he chose. He has secured his position as leader for a further five years and has secured the team that he wanted, but what does he plan to do with it? Was all the manoeuvring simply to secure his own position for another five years? What about the legacy that looked so shiny a decade ago but has since become so tarnished? Will he allow it to get yet more tarnished or take active measures to restore it?

Sadly at present it looks like the former. The only discernible ZANU(PF) policy is to block progress on any front until Tsvangirai and the MDC get sanctions lifted. Mugabe and ZANU(PF) must know that this is not in the MDC's power, but they do not seem to care. They are simply patting themselves on the back for turning the tables on MDC-T, for convincing SADC and SA that this is the only route to progress and for paralysing the IG. All this achieves is the perpetuation of an unsustainable status quo.

So what lies ahead for the country? Deadlock and paralysis with little prospect of a way out. The party congress' promise of unity "in defence of our natural resources and people's economic empowerment" looks a long way off - a privileged few engage dubious external partners to help them pick over our natural resources, empowering only them. The people are left as bystanders while the party squanders the gains of the liberation struggle and with it the support of its followers - hardly the best way to prepare for an election that will inevitably have to come, even if not till next year. At least 2010 saw some improvement in the quality of life of the people. 2011 promises only stagnation.

Is Chiwenga really a potential future contender for the Presidency?

2009-12-12T12:55:00.001+02:00

It is one of Mugabe's weaknesses that he has always preferred to keep closest to him lesser individuals who he can control. The reason he has always played Mujuru and Mnangagwa off against each other is that each presents a real threat threat to his position. Neither Chiwenga or Chihuri present any such threat - both were saved from ignominy by Mugabe and their future would be nothing without him. Both men were considerably junior to the now much less powerful Zimondi in 1979. Mugabe hand-picked them not for their strengths but their weaknesses.

Chiwenga's major weakness of course was his failure to make the grade at the end of his training course in Gweru in the early eighties. This was such a personal setback that he was driven to kill himself - the only problem was that he failed in that as well. The bullet intended for his heart passed straight through his chest and out his back without hitting the intended target.

Often people consider failed suicide attempts to be really cries for help. There is no suggestion that this was anything other than a genuine attempt but it served as the most effective cry for help Chiwenga could possibly have made. The then PM, Robert Mugabe, took pity on him and got the instructors involved to reverse their decision. He then got Chiwenga promoted to Brigadier in the first batch of post-independence commanders of the army's four brigades. Rarely, if ever, has anybody's rapid promotion through the ranks been so genuinely accidental.

Chihuri's rise owes as little to competence as Chiwenga's and was if anything even more unlikely. In the late seventies, Chihuri was under arrest - but not by the white regime in the then Rhodesia for his activity against the Smith regime, but in Mozambique for plotting against Robert Mugabe! Indeed he was only released at the insistence of the then Governor, Lord Soames.

Although most former guerillas were integrated into the national army, Chihuri had to settle for the police which he joined as a lowly patrol officer. He progressed rapidly through the ranks despite (or because of?) a growing reputation for corruption - indeed despite being the officer in charge of Nyanyadzi police station in Manicaland when the police funds there were misappropriated, he was transferred from there to Mutare on promotion to superintendent while the case was being investigated - by Mutare CID. His subsequent rise to Commissioner was accompanied by further scandal, particularly during his period as Deputy Commissioner, and it is thought that the hold Mugabe has on him as a result ensures his long-term and unswerving loyalty.

The current rumours about Chiwenga's aspirations for the Presidency in the event of Mugabe's death may owe something to the recent downturn in the political fortunes of Emmerson Mnangagwa. Chiwenga is not someone with a political power base of his own but he would feel very vulnerable if his current political patron lost power - for whatever reason. Because of their close co-operation on the JOC, Mnangagwa would have been best placed to provide political top cover for Chiwenga in the future. But Mnangagwa's dramatic loss of influence in recent weeks might conceivably have caused him to consider other options. Whatever he might be considering however, he could never be a serious contender for the top job and if he tried to use his current position to secure it, neither the party or the people would tolerate it.

Succession contenders rumoured to include Chiwenga

2009-12-11T18:45:00.001+02:00

The party congress plenary has barely started in earnest but the waves from the struggle for power within the party are already breaking over the delegates. Such is the state of things that rumours are even starting to circulate that the Chief of the Defence Forces Constantine Chiwenga may himself have designs on the Presidency. Of course it is well-known that before the March elections last year Chiwenga made clear that the army would support the President against the election of sell-outs. Anyone would think it was election time again so feverish are the rumours.

The current rumours appear to have been sparked initially by the Pomona affair. The mysterious disappearance of some 20-odd weapons from the Pomona army barracks in late October resulted in the arrest of an MDC man and a number of service personnel some of whom have been reported to have died in custody. This has led to considerable concern in the army as some of those arrested, including officers and war veterans, are alleged to have been tortured and/or died in custody. There is a suspicion that all is not as it seems - it rarely is in Mugabe's Zimbabwe - and that the theft of the weapons was in fact a conspiracy dreamt up by the top brass for political reasons - to try to implicate the MDC in coup-plotting.

Whatever the truth to these rumours, there is concern reaching up to quite a high level in the military about the mounting professional cost to the army of the personal political agenda of the the CDF. It was the heads of the security forces, Chiwenga and Chihuri in particular, who persuaded Mugabe to mount the campaign of intimidation that led to his uncontested re-election last year - their concern then was for their own necks, not the interests of the party, the army or the police. That campaign caused real damage to all three - though Mugabe was re-elected his legitimacy suffered definitive damage, forcing him into power-sharing.

If Mugabe had embarked on a negotiating procees in the immediate aftermath of the March elections he could have negotiated much better terms for himself and the party. As for the army and the police, many of whom were already disillusioned with the recent direction of the party they were the ones who were obliged to bear the consequences of their participation in the intimidation with the people.

Although the senior ranks felt this less than those in the front line, they still felt it. But what has aggravated a lot of more senior officers recently is that their promotion prospects are beginning to be adversely affected. Chiwenga is increasingly surrounding himself with fellow Zezurus. In fact there is said to be deep resentment across the security forces, particularly amongst the Karanga, at the over-promotion fo the Zezurus. It is almost as if their leaders increasingly surrounded and threatened by the forces of change are retreating into a Zezuru laager.

Of course Chiwenga is something of a mirror of his master in this respect. Mugabe's security chiefs are all Zezuru - Chiwenga commanding the Armed Forces, Chihuri the police, Zimondi the prisons, even Bonyongwe at the CIO. Of all of these however those who would appear to have done least to earn their current power are Chiwenga and Chihuri. They therefore are prepared to do almost anything to ensure Mugabe stays put. Their power base stems from solely from their relationship with him. This has only added to the widespread resentment in the ranks below them in their respective services because of their past history on which I will comment further later

Leadership uneasy as delegates congregate for Mugabe's speech to Congress

2009-12-11T18:00:00.000+02:00

Although both the Politburo and the Central Committee have ratified the nominations for the presidium, the plenary session of congress opened by President Mugabe today meets in an atmosphere of unprecedented dissension. So nervous has the leadership become that journalists from the independent media are reported to be being barred from covering the event at the Harare International Conference Centre.This suggests that few are confident that the nominations will be confirmed without some opposition from the floor tomorrow.

It is almost as if all the frustrations that have been building up in the party over so many years are finally boiling over at this very public event. I had earlier voiced concern at the party's propensity to shoot itself in the foot. It looks set to surpass itself on this occasion. The factionalism that has re-emerged in the last few days came to a head on Wednesday when the provincial chairman of Manicaland province, Basil Nyabadza, resigned in a huff following heated arguments over the nomination of members to the presidium. With such bitter and open dissent between delegates at all levels of the party, the President is facing a real challenge over the next 24 hours to unite the party as was so badly needed. The increasingly wild speculation has even included suggestions that the Chief of Defence Forces intends to throw his hat in the ring for the succession.

Momentum at Last?

2009-12-10T13:28:00.004+02:00

Ephraim Masawi may deny it, but there is widespread discontent within ZANU (PF) - see Denford Magora's story. Mugabe's efforts to silence other voices have failed. But it is tragic that free speech can only enter the Congress in the form of SMS: will anyone have the courage to speak freely in the conference centre?

At long last is it possible that we will have a meaningful Congress? Will our party finally begin to address its biggest issue, the succession?

And with Daniel Molokele's report that Tendai Wenyika, ZANU (PF) Youth Secretary for Harare Province, has called for an end to Mugabe's rule and of the "taboo" against discussing the succession, are we finally seeing the signs of change in our party?

Dark Cloud Hangs over Presidium Nominations as Congress Delegates Arrive

2009-12-09T19:38:00.001+02:00

Reports are reaching me that last minute efforts are afoot to change the nominations for the Presidium. At the very moment when we should be trying to bury the bitterness that has been engendered by the party provincial elections we seem determined to resurrect it. This would be a real disaster, not simply because it would be re-opening wounds that might otherwise start to heal but also because the only alternative candidates under consideration would be even worse for the party than the current line-up. It appears that President Mugabe himself may be the one who is trying to effect these last minute changes, possibly under pressure from others.

We are not going to regain the initiative by nominating Didymus Mutasa for the party chairmanship in place of Simon Moyo Khaya Moyo as is being suggested in some quarters. The only thing that can possibly recommend Mutasa to Mugabe is his unquestioning loyalty. He is a man who does not even have the support of his province - although he likes to see himself as the leader of the Manyikas, he is not popular there. And he is even less popular in the country at large - the people hold him in no small part responsible for Operation Murambatsvina. And since then he stated publicly that Zimbabwe would be better off with fewer people - therefore it would not matter if a few thousand died of hunger. It is incredible to think that our leadership might possibly have become so far removed from reality that that they should even contemplate having such a man leading the party. If he were from ZAPU, there might at least be some rationale given the long-standing convention of having a ZAPU man in the party chairmanship. If the factions in the party were now competing to alienate as many potential supporters as possible, they could scarcely choose a better candidate than Mutasa.

Sadly, the problems our party is facing stem largely from the fact that Mugabe himself remains at the helm. But even he realised after the March elections last year that the people no longer wanted him. Without the intervention of the security chiefs, the country might have avoided the violence and bloodshed of the presidential run-off that has so discredited us in the eyes of even our natural allies in Africa and Asia who had always stood by us in the face of an onslaught of criticism from the West. Liberation movements don't like to see their fellow liberation movements beating up their own people.

By allowing himself to be influenced away from the path his instincts told him to go down, Mugabe sacrificed his legitimacy and that of the party forcing him and them into signing the Global Political agreement and ulimately entering the inclusive government. Those same security chiefs have done everything possible to resist the implementation of the global political agreement that we as a party have signed up to and SADC has endorsed. They do not seem to understand that it is only through participation in - and ideally long-term domination of - the inclusive government that we can regain the intiative and our legitimacy in the eyes of the people. There is nowhere else for us to go as party - and if we are going to have any chance of winning at the polls next time round, we need to embrace implementation of the global political agreement sooner rather than later in order to secure a constitution that suits us. The longer we remain spoilers, the more we lose influence.

The theme chosen for the Congress, "United in Defence of our Natural Resources and People's Economic Empowerment", emphasises the right points provided the party can present a convincing programme to deliver. The fact is that the majority of the Zimbabwean people did not feel at all "economically empowered" at the time of last year's elections. As a result ZANU failed to emerge electorally empowered. The perception of the people was that the only people benefitting from the defence of our natural resources and the land redistribution programme were those people directly responsible around the President. The redistribution of land was long overdue but it has been done in a completely unplanned way. The vast majority of the farms in the country have rightly changed hands but not necessarily into the most deserving ones. Although there has been a distinct improvement in the economy since inflation has been brought under control, this has not filtered through much to the rural areas and the party is not as closely associated with that improvement as it should be. This is partly because we appear such reluctant participants in the inclusive government.

Equally the people do not see themselves as experiencing the benefits of the defence of our natural resources. Our security forces have been most visibly involved in the defence of our natural resources in places like Chiadzwa and what do they see there? They see plunder as the army and the police ride roughshod over the local population. It is not the lower ranks who are primarily to blame for this - it is their commanders who remain engaged in protecting their own interest rather than those of the wider population.

The sums of money generated by the trade of diamonds from the Marange area are thought to be enormous - millions daily. But who has seen the benefits? Not the local community, not central government, not even the party, which has had desperate difficulty raising the funds to cover the costs of the Congress. Today's Herald reports the frustration of the delegates with the poor administrative arrangements - one complained "we are being harrassed by the people who are supposed to be assisting us". Now delegates to the party congress are experiencing what many people in the country have been feeling in recent years. The people who have been most directly responsible for the well-being and security of the people are those who have made them feel most threatened, vulnerable and insecure.

ZANU (PF) Must Unite to Survive

2009-12-09T17:45:00.000+02:00

With the Congress only days away, there is an inevitable tension between the need to show unity in the face of threats to the party's dominance in the political life of our country and the need to face up to the long-term problems facing us. The sad truth is that we find ourselves in this situation precisely because we have avoided addressing the long-term problems for so long we have agruably left it too late to salvage anything from the consequences.

What are the long-term problems we have failed to address? First and foremost, it is the succession issue. Arguably it is our failure to address this issue that has led to all our other problems. In President Mugabe we had a leader who stood head and shoulders above all his counterparts in Africa - at least until Nelson Mandela became President in South Africa in 1996. By this time of course, President Mugabe had already been in power for sixteen years. If there had been a mechanism, expectation and inclination for a change of leadership then, Mugabe's own legacy and the future of ZANU (PF) would both be looking much more secure today than they are.

So why has it been so difficult for us to change our leader in time to secure our party's future? There are a host of reasons but the biggest has probably been fear. No-one who has ever presented a serious challenge to Mugabe's pre-emininence has ever prospered. Whether the challenge has come from outside the ranks (as with Joshua Nkomo), or within (as with Sithole, Tongogara, Tekere, even Simba Makoni), it has invariably failed - sometimes with very unpleasant consequences for the challenger. At best a challenger could expect to lose any prospect of future political power, more often he is consigned to the political wilderness or worse still killed. The only way round this problem is to make the Presidency largely ceremonial and put a limit on not only the term of the President but on the number of terms he can serve.

If the President is ceremonial and is only in power for a limited period of power and the Prime Minister is leader of a party that has to be re-elected every four-five years, it is impossible for either to wield the long-term powers of patronage that inevitably corrupt the political process and those vying for power within it. Of course, such changes will not prevent the factionalism that has torn the party apart so much over the years but they would remove the need for so much of the factional warfare to be waged covertly.

Political parties will always contain within them individuals and groups with differing views and conflicting ambitions. Provided these can be aired, such differences should energise debate and with it the party. It is when different factions plot behind the scenes to destroy their rivals that the party gets damaged. This is what has happened to ZANU over the last 10-15 years and has been so much in evidence this year in the build-up to the party congress at the party provincial level.

This is why it is so important that we put the factionalism behind us now and focus on addressing the long-term issues. However uninspiring the nominees for the top posts may be, we will only tear ourselves further apart if we try to change them now. We must unite around them and require them to unite around a new way forward.

Congress Begins

2009-12-07T04:34:00.000+02:00

With the Congress now upon us, our focus should be placed on how we can develop as a party. Most importantly, we need to deal with the twin issues of succession and leadership. We need to establish a process by which power within the party moves smoothly between one leader and the next. As long as there is uncertainty about the process, we will see infighting and back-biting.

There has been enough infighting already in the battle for influence that has accompanied the selection of the contenders for the Presidium and the Chairmanship of the Party. Both Emmerson Mnangagwa and Didymus Mutasa, are said to be deflated at being outsmarted by the Mujuru faction. Mnangagwa, whose influence with the President looked secure a mere couple of months ago, must now be seeing the Presidency slipping away from him. But does anyone really consider Joyce Mujuru a suitable alternative? The party needs to find an alternative who is also a credible figure internationally.

It is alarming that these are the two most credible alternatives we have. How is it that a party that had so much young talent when it came to power almost thirty years ago finds itself so bereft of such talent now? The party has stagnated with the passage of time because the leadership has been more concerned to preserve their position then to secure the party¿s future. Those who have identified the need for renewal have ended having to leave the party as a consensus to challenge the status quo has always eluded it

With Mugabe now 85, we can delay no longer. We have at the very least to identify and agree on the mechanisms for appointing a successor to Mugabe. What would happen if he were to die tomorrow? The party would not unite around either Vice-president, still less so the country.

As well as strong leadership, the party also needs improved accountability. This Congress will fall short of the celebratory success that it usually is. Where has all the money gone? We need to root out the corrupt elements within the party. Corruption bleeds funding away from the party and it gives us a bad reputation which our enemies can exploit.

Anyone inside ZANU (PF) who is honest with himself knows that these are important issues.

Politburo Dates Changed Again

2009-12-03T07:28:00.000+02:00

What a farce. The dates of the Congress have again been changed. The Politburo will now be held on Wednesday 9 December, the Central Committee on 10 December, with the Congress being 11-12 December.

Rumours have it that Didymus Mutasa failed to consult President Mugabe or the party chairman when he moved it to the 15 December. And, as we now know, President Mugabe will be attending the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit.

Such an obvious lack of organisation only serves to make Morgan and the MDC more competent. We have a negative public image around the world, all this does is give the MDC more impetus to make us look disorganised and the MDC the ideal party to be in power. Let us stop this infighting and miscommunication and give the Zimbabweans the democratic government they truly deserve.

What does it say about a party when it cannot even organise its own events?

South Africa Announces New Facilitation Team

2009-11-27T05:47:00.000+02:00

Yesterday President Zuma announced a new three-person Facilitation Team to work on the Zimbabwean process. Three big names have been brought in: Charles Nqakula, Zuma’s senior Political Advisor; Lindiwe Zulu, International Relations Advisor; and Special Envoy Mac Maharaj.

Zulu is a career diplomat and a former spokeswoman for the South African presidency. She is professional and measured and, above all, a listener, who has won respect in all her foreign postings (most recently as Ambassador to Brazil). I have met her and believe her to be very sharp.

Both Nqakula and Maharaj gave most of their lives to the struggle against apartheid in South Africa and their credentials – and integrity – cannot be doubted. Though a former minister under Mbeki, Nqakula was respected enough by Zuma to be given the role of his main Political Advisor. The fact that he is leading a Facilitation Team of real party heavy-weights underlines the enormous importance of the Zimbabwe issue to the South African President.

The announcement is good news. It signals South Africa’s genuine commitment to resolving the problems in our country. To have serious negotiators on this team shows that South Africa means business and that the problems in Zimbabwe will take a lot of tough talking to resolve. They will be prepared to bang heads together.

The appointment of Maharaj is an especially big move. “Mac” is seriously hardcore and does not suffer fools. He was repeatedly tortured by the Apartheid police (including having his genitals hit with a truncheon) before spending time on Robben Island with Nelson Mandela. He then ran the ANC military organisation in South Africa and was a leading member of the ANC negotiating team with the Apartheid government of De Klerk. He is a communist, and a valued comrade of Zimbabwe – who, like most of his colleagues in the ANC, watched in admiration as Mugabe led the resistance movement north of the Limpopo River. ZANU (PF) cannot afford to alienate these fellow champions of the liberation movement. If we cannot find a way to work with them, all is lost for the party.

ZANU (PF) and the ANC have enjoyed a long history together. Both parties have helped each other in their quest for liberation. We should respect what Zuma is trying to achieve. He has Zimbabwe’s best interests at heart but it is also in his own interests to see Zimbabwe restored to health. Problems in Zimbabwe spill over into South Africa, there are millions of Zimbabwean refugees in South Africa and if Zuma helps to solve the political deadlock, he will win praise from many people around the world.

Tsvangirai woos Gaddafi

2009-11-25T09:12:00.000+02:00

What a humiliation for ZANU (PF)! This week, Morgan Tsvangirai travelled to Libya for a meeting with Colonel Gaddafi, currently head of the African Union. Tsvangirai was met with full military honours.

What has happened? Gaddafi used to be a loyal supporter of ZANU (PF) and President Mugabe. Now he embraces Tsvangirai and the MDC. We need to watch our back. The tide of events is turning against us.

ZANU (PF) is quickly becoming obsolete on the international stage. If ZANU (PF) is to keep the support of its most loyal friends and allies, it needs to engage properly with the Inclusive Government and lead it NOW.

Congress Postponed for Lack of Funds

2009-11-23T09:31:00.000+02:00

The Party Congress has been postponed. Apparently this is because of a lack of funds.

Already, the event has been scaled back from the glamour of previous years. According to Congress organisers, the number of spaces has been cut, many distinguished party members have been told not to come and many of the delegates will be sitting on the floor in TENTS.

But why are there no funds? They must be out there but they are just not going into the Congress. Who controls the Chiadzwa diamond fields, for example? It does not seem to be the IG. Obviously this source of enormous wealth should flow directly into government control. But where is the money going? Certainly not into paying for the Fifth Congress, not into hospitals or schools. There is one simple explanation: it is being stolen.

The main mine in Chiadzwa – Marange – is controlled by the army and the profits go straight to the corrupt generals and brigadiers at the top of the tree.

ZANU (PF) is not in control. Mnangagwa and the Mujurus fight each other and blame the MDC for all of Zimbabwe’s ills, while failing to see the true threat that faces them. The money from the diamonds is going straight to the military. According to a source in Marange, over 400 million rands worth of diamonds were sold in the last two months. And who reaps the profits? Surely it can’t all be going to Chiwenga, Chihuri, Gideon Gono and a small gang around them.

This money belongs to the people of Zimbabwe. Friends of ZANU (PF) – we need to stand up to the thieves in our midst. We must throw them out! If President Mugabe won’t – or more likely, can’t – we need to take action from within. The Congress is the time to do this.

The ZANU (PF) Congress: Last Chance to Get It Right?

2009-11-14T08:06:00.000+02:00

In a few weeks’ time, the Fifth ZANU (PF) Party Congress will be held. This is a huge event which comes only once every 5 years. Thousands of party members from across Zimbabwe will congregate in Harare. They will select the Presidium and the Politburo and they will determine the future of the party for the next 5 years. For the good of the party and all the country, they MUST get it right!

Congress comes at a crucial time. The struggle between different factions for control of the party has left it paralysed. It is vulnerable to outside meddling. The deadlock between ZANU (PF) and the MDC – and also the MDC’s childish “disengagement” – has completely stopped the vital work of reform and rebuilding that our country needs. The longer this log-jam continues, the more we lose legitimacy and the support of the people.

This may well be President Mugabe’s last Congress. He is 85 years old. If he dies as President, there will be a vicious struggle for power UNLESS we can resolve the core issues first. The most prominent battle for the leadership is between Minister of Defence Emerson Mnangagwa and Vice President Joyce Mujuru. Mnangagwa has a long and distinguished career in ZANU (PF) but his blatant personal ambition and rumours about some of his activities have worried many party members. For her part, Joyce Mujuru has established herself as an effective member of the government since her appointment as Vice President but some say that she relies too much on the military record of her husband Rex for her credibility.

Are there other potential candidates who could vie for the Presidency? Names occasionally put forward include VP John Nkomo, Sidney Sekeremayi and Didymus Mutasa. People in the know have also recently suggested that General Chiwenga, Commander of the Defence Forces, may also try to use his influence to gain power. There are already rumours circulating about his possible involvement in the Pomona arms theft. Could these be true? If yes, then he would be another likely candidate in this power struggle as he would use his military influence to steer the party in his favour.

It is essential to point out that for the party to thrive, we need a seasoned leader who can consolidate the party objectives, and do away with the infighting currently been witnessed in the government. We have had enough of the internal power struggles. It is time we started considering a successor to the President, that we ensure a smooth transition of power.

Those who care about Zimbabwe and ZANU (PF) need to speak out now to reform the party if we are to have any hope of survival. At the Congress, we cannot leave such crucial issues as the leadership and succession tobe dealt with in closed sessions or to be arranged in advance.

We need an open and honest debate. Even more importantly, the party needs to hear the TRUTH about the betrayals inflicted upon the party by some of its most powerful members. Now is the time to get all the skeletons out of the closet and make decisions based on fact, not lies.

I for one am not afraid to speak out and I invite all like-minded Zimbabweans to share their stories with me.

What happened at Pomona?

2009-11-12T06:37:00.000+02:00

We do not seem to be able to stop shooting ourselves in the foot. Just as our neighbours start to show a sense of urgency about the situation in Zimbabwe, we start to fight amongst ourselves. As if the factionalism in the party was not enough, we now have the security forces fighting amongst themselves.

Following the disappearance of some 20 AK-47s from the Pomona barracks, it appears that a number of army personnel have been arrested along with an MDC official whose connection to them is as unclear as everything else in this murky story.

According to the Herald of 5 Novemebr the MDC man, one Pasco Gwezere, "is alleged to have teamed up with one Gertrude and some soldiers who are still at large and broke into the armoury to steal the weapons" on 20 October. The same article suggests that Gwezere and three other party activists went for military training at the Soroti camp in Uganda in 1999 with the intention of coming back to Zimbabwe to destabilise the government of that time. If this is true, it speaks volumes for the effectiveness of both the alleged training and our security forces. It would appear that it has taken the best part of a decade for the supposed "destabilisers" to put their training into practice - and our security forces only seem to have been able to rumble them after they have stolen weapons from an armoury.

The whole incident would be laughable if it did not reflect so badly on the party. Everyone knows that one part of the machinery over which the President and the party have been careful to retain control is the security forces and the security forces have clearly failed us whatever the truth behind this story. Either they have failed to detect plotters in their midst or, if the opposition press is to be beleived, they are rounding up a number of their own people without good cause - worse still it could be both.

One can only pray that tales of torture of high ranking officers are eventually shown to be pure fabrication otherwise our own armed forces, who have done so much to secure the gains of the liberation struggle, will start to feel threatened by their colleagues - whether in the CIO, the police and even their own superiors. There is a limit to the number of people we can afford to alienate and for each there is a cost.

SADC Turns on ZANU (PF)

2009-11-10T05:57:00.000+02:00

Last week, something important happened in Maputo. For the first time SADC, the Southern African Development Community, made a statement on Zimbabwe which puts real pressure on ZANU (PF) and President Mugabe. It demands that the President and Morgan Tsvangirai to resolve their differences and move forward the Global Political Agreement.

Firstly, it “urged” both parties in Zimbabwe’s Inclusive Government to “comply with the spirit and letter” of the GPA.

Secondly, it urged the parties not to allow the situation to deteriorate any further.

Thirdly, it tasked the two parties to engage in “dialogue” on all the outstanding issues from the GPA and gave them 30 days to do so.

Tsvangirai, having lost his temper over the Roy Bennett scandal, agreed to re-engage.

Until now, the SADC has been a close supporter of ZANU (PF) and the President. Why have they now turned on us? Because we deserve it!

Finally, South Africa – i.e. Jacob Zuma – has thrown its weight fully behind the GPA. Sources who were at the summit report that Zuma ran the show and, behind closed doors, all but banged heads together to get the statement.

Now both sides will have to stop arguing and get on with the job of putting Zimbabwe back together.

How to Fix Zimbabwe

2009-11-04T01:37:00.000+02:00

Zimbabwe is a country in grave crisis, as usual. The economy has stabilised - for now - and the number of tourists in our country has doubled since last year, but the sorry truth is that the political conflict at the centre of Zimbabwe’s troubles has only got worse.

MDC does what it can but has no experience of government and, has no real power to get the job done. Meanwhile, ZANU (PF), the great liberation party of our country, still the real centre of power, is tearing itself apart from the inside!

ZANU (PF) is not the monster the Western media denounces. At least, not all. There are many ZANU (PF) Party members (myself included), who are so unhappy with the situation Zimbabwe finds itself today and would like to see it resolved for the benefit of all our people.

But it is true that the party has a dark side, usually associated with the BIG MEN in the security sector. President Mugabe himself cannot control these men and he knows he cannot trust them. But he and they have a common interest: they need him to stay in power to save them from justice and from the vengeance of their victims.

Power corrupts - and too many of our ZANU (PF) comrades have become corrupted over the years. The Party has become separated from the people it liberated. The Security chiefs dictate the agenda and bludgeon people into a submission that only fuels their discontent. The interests of the many are sold out to the interests of a few. Friends, for too long, the spectres of colonialism and MDC terrorism have been used to keep attention from how these very people are, right now, plundering our national economy to fill their own pockets!

To survive, ZANU (PF) needs to change course and remake itself as a force for unity. It is the only party capable of bridging the chasm between the extremes of the MDC on the one hand and the die-hards in the security apparatus on the other.

Let me say, we need to throw out the rotten apples and reform. We must embrace the Inclusive Government, however painful and difficult that may be. ZANU (PF) must become the senior partner in a project of national healing that can only be overseen by the party that brought the country liberation. We cannot entrust our future exclusively to the MDC – or, worse still, to those who have been trying to obstruct what little progress the IG has made so far.

To fix Zimbabwe, we first need to fix ZANU (PF).